U.S. macro-implied policy path built from free official data and point-in-time FRED/ALFRED vintages. This is not CME FedWatch and does not ingest futures prices.
MODEL —DATA —AS OF —
Target midpoint
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EFFR
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Effective Fed Funds Rate
Real policy rate
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Target midpoint − Core PCE YoY
Core PCE YoY
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Point-in-time vintage
NFCI
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Chicago Fed financial conditions
Next FOMC implied
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Node Macro-Implied Policy Path
1m, 3m, 6m and 12m forecasts are estimated directly. FOMC dots are interpolated between those direct horizons; the model does not recursively assume future macro data.
Macro Drivers
Grouped coefficient contributions for the —.
Upcoming FOMC Path
Official meeting dates are maintained explicitly; no calendar scraping is used.
Decision date
Meeting
Implied midpoint
Δ vs current
Methodology Guardrail
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No source, no signal. No paid feed, no scraping, no silent forward-fill and no proxy substituted solely to fill a missing series.
Out-of-Sample Validation
Expanding-window walk-forward validation. Each outer forecast is trained only on prior data; alpha selection uses time-series cross-validation inside that training window. Persistence means no policy change.
Horizon
Node MAE
Node RMSE
Direction
Simple reaction MAE
Persistence MAE
MAE skill vs persistence
OOS n
Data Health
A stale/missing source is shown explicitly. Critical missing series prevent publication of a fresh model path.